TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Willow Springs | Cabool |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.1 | 18.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 37.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.6 | -18.3 |
| SOS | +12.7 | +7.5 |
| POWER | -12.2 | -15.6 |
WILLOW SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Willow Springs finished the job, as Willow Springs and Cabool finished 42-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-24 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 6.0-point projection. That produced a 36.0-point margin error, with score errors of 11.5 for Willow Springs and 24.5 for Cabool.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLOW SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Willow Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.0-point margin, with Willow Springs carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Willow Springs enters at 22.1 points per game compared with 18.0 for Cabool. Willow Springs also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +12.7 for Willow Springs and +7.5 for Cabool. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Willow Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willow Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.