TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crest Ridge with Chilhowee | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 22.1 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 31.6 | 29.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.1 | -9.7 |
| SOS | +7.0 | +3.9 |
| POWER | -15.7 | -8.3 |
BUTLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Butler finished the job, as Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and Butler finished 21-45. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-29 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 20.1-point margin error, with score errors of 4.2 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and 15.9 for Butler.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BUTLER
MOFO leans toward Butler because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Butler carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Butler enters at 25.2 points per game compared with 22.1 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee. Butler also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.9 for Butler and +7.0 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Butler owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Crest Ridge with Chilhowee has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.