TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wellington-Napoleon | Braymer |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 36.6 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 31.1 | 45.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.2 | -30.3 |
| SOS | +4.5 | +16.1 |
| POWER | +7.7 | -24.7 |
WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wellington-Napoleon finished the job, as Wellington-Napoleon and Braymer finished 70-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 44-24 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 20.3-point projection. That produced a 9.7-point margin error, with score errors of 25.8 for Wellington-Napoleon and 16.0 for Braymer.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON
MOFO leans toward Wellington-Napoleon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 32.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.3-point margin, with Wellington-Napoleon carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Wellington-Napoleon enters at 36.6 points per game compared with 23.6 for Braymer. Wellington-Napoleon also allows 14.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.5 for Wellington-Napoleon and +16.1 for Braymer. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Wellington-Napoleon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Braymer has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 32.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.