TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wright City | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.5 | 29.2 |
| PA / GAME | 29.4 | 31.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.9 | -1.4 |
| SOS | +10.8 | +5.5 |
| POWER | -17.1 | +0.5 |
BOWLING GREEN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Bowling Green finished the job, as Wright City and Bowling Green finished 18-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-31 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 7.4-point projection. That produced a 28.6-point margin error, with score errors of 5.8 for Wright City and 22.8 for Bowling Green.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOWLING GREEN
MOFO leans toward Bowling Green because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.4-point margin, with Bowling Green carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Bowling Green enters at 29.2 points per game compared with 19.5 for Wright City. Wright City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.5 for Bowling Green and +10.8 for Wright City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Bowling Green owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wright City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.