TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Eldon | Boonville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 21.3 | 40.6 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 24.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.9 | +29.0 |
| SOS | -8.7 | -8.0 |
| POWER | -15.0 | +26.2 |
BOONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Boonville finished the job, as Eldon and Boonville finished 0-50. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-39 final.
The actual margin was 50 points versus MOFO's 20.7-point projection. That produced a 29.3-point margin error, with score errors of 18.2 for Eldon and 11.1 for Boonville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Boonville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 41.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.7-point margin, with Boonville carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Boonville enters at 40.6 points per game compared with 21.3 for Eldon. Boonville also allows 4.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.0 for Boonville and -8.7 for Eldon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Boonville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Boonville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 41.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.