TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Blue Springs | Blue Springs South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.0 | 27.3 |
| PA / GAME | 24.2 | 22.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.7 | +4.8 |
| SOS | +7.0 | +3.8 |
| POWER | +13.1 | +6.1 |
BLUE SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Blue Springs finished the job, as Blue Springs and Blue Springs South finished 38-17. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 18.7-point margin error, with score errors of 10.8 for Blue Springs and 7.9 for Blue Springs South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BLUE SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Blue Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Blue Springs carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Blue Springs enters at 30.0 points per game compared with 27.3 for Blue Springs South. Blue Springs South's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.0 for Blue Springs and +3.8 for Blue Springs South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Blue Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Blue Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.