TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mountain Grove | Ava |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.5 | 20.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.9 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.1 | -12.1 |
| SOS | +13.6 | +10.4 |
| POWER | -1.3 | -8.5 |
MOUNTAIN GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mountain Grove finished the job, as Mountain Grove and Ava finished 32-10. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-22 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 15.7-point margin error, with score errors of 3.6 for Mountain Grove and 12.1 for Ava.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUNTAIN GROVE
MOFO leans toward Mountain Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Mountain Grove carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mountain Grove enters at 24.5 points per game compared with 20.9 for Ava. Mountain Grove also allows 5.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.6 for Mountain Grove and +10.4 for Ava. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Mountain Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mountain Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.