TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stockton with Sheldon | Ash Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 29.5 |
| PA / GAME | 22.8 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.9 | +9.4 |
| SOS | -4.2 | -14.6 |
| POWER | +4.4 | +4.3 |
ASH GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ash Grove finished the job, as Stockton with Sheldon and Ash Grove finished 9-29. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-26 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 19.0-point margin error, with score errors of 15.9 for Stockton with Sheldon and 3.1 for Ash Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ASH GROVE
MOFO leans toward Ash Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Ash Grove carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ash Grove enters at 29.5 points per game compared with 26.0 for Stockton with Sheldon. Stockton with Sheldon's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.6 for Ash Grove and -4.2 for Stockton with Sheldon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ash Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stockton with Sheldon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.