TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Webster Groves | Affton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.4 | 20.6 |
| PA / GAME | 26.3 | 30.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.9 | -11.1 |
| SOS | -13.5 | -9.6 |
| POWER | -0.8 | -14.5 |
WEBSTER GROVES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Webster Groves finished the job, as Webster Groves and Affton finished 41-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-22 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 7.2-point projection. That produced a 27.8-point margin error, with score errors of 11.8 for Webster Groves and 16.0 for Affton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEBSTER GROVES
MOFO leans toward Webster Groves because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.2-point margin, with Webster Groves carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Webster Groves enters at 25.4 points per game compared with 20.6 for Affton. Webster Groves also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.5 for Webster Groves and -9.6 for Affton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Webster Groves owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Affton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.