TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Blair Oaks | Lutheran North |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 32.8 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 17.7 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.0 | -12.0 |
| SOS | +6.1 | +8.9 |
| POWER | +8.2 | -8.9 |
BLAIR OAKS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Blair Oaks finished the job, as Blair Oaks and Lutheran North finished 49-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-19 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 13.2-point projection. That produced a 0.8-point margin error, with score errors of 17.0 for Blair Oaks and 16.2 for Lutheran North.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BLAIR OAKS
MOFO leans toward Blair Oaks because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.2-point margin, with Blair Oaks carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Blair Oaks enters at 32.8 points per game compared with 23.6 for Lutheran North. Blair Oaks also allows 9.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.1 for Blair Oaks and +8.9 for Lutheran North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Blair Oaks owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.