TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Louisiana | Winfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.3 | 26.7 |
| PA / GAME | 26.5 | 23.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.0 | +16.6 |
| SOS | -15.0 | -17.3 |
| POWER | +11.7 | +10.5 |
LOUISIANA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Louisiana finished the job, as Louisiana and Winfield finished 33-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-26 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 10.9-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Louisiana and 4.4 for Winfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOUISIANA
MOFO leans toward Louisiana because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Louisiana carrying a 50% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Louisiana enters at 29.3 points per game compared with 26.7 for Winfield. Winfield's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.0 for Louisiana and -17.3 for Winfield. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Louisiana owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Louisiana has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.