TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran South | Windsor (Imperial) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.8 | 26.3 |
| PA / GAME | 23.8 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.8 | +4.1 |
| SOS | -15.2 | -8.0 |
| POWER | +13.5 | +1.3 |
WINDSOR (IMPERIAL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Windsor (Imperial) finished the job, as Lutheran South and Windsor (Imperial) finished 46-64. MOFO's pick of Lutheran South missed; the model had projected a 30-24 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 6.0-point projection. That produced a 24.0-point margin error, with score errors of 16.1 for Lutheran South and 40.2 for Windsor (Imperial).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LUTHERAN SOUTH
MOFO leans toward Lutheran South because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.0-point margin, with Lutheran South carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lutheran South enters at 29.8 points per game compared with 26.3 for Windsor (Imperial). Lutheran South also allows 3.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.2 for Lutheran South and -8.0 for Windsor (Imperial). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lutheran South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Windsor (Imperial) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.