TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Skyline | Willow Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.1 | 23.1 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 30.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.5 | -8.6 |
| SOS | -16.1 | -1.1 |
| POWER | +12.8 | -9.0 |
SKYLINE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Skyline finished the job, as Skyline and Willow Springs finished 44-13. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-21 final.
The actual margin was 31 points versus MOFO's 10.5-point projection. That produced a 20.5-point margin error, with score errors of 12.2 for Skyline and 8.3 for Willow Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SKYLINE
MOFO leans toward Skyline because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.5-point margin, with Skyline carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Skyline enters at 29.1 points per game compared with 23.1 for Willow Springs. Skyline also allows 6.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -16.1 for Skyline and -1.1 for Willow Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Skyline owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willow Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.