TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ozark | Willard |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.7 | 24.8 |
| PA / GAME | 35.3 | 33.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.6 | -4.2 |
| SOS | +11.0 | -4.8 |
| POWER | -14.7 | -5.9 |
OZARK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ozark finished the job, as Ozark and Willard finished 48-12. MOFO's pick of Willard missed; the model had projected a 30-31 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 36.8-point margin error, with score errors of 18.0 for Ozark and 18.7 for Willard.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLARD
MOFO leans toward Willard because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with Willard carrying a 53% win probability.
Ozark actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Willard also allows 1.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Willard and +11.0 for Ozark. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ozark owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ozark has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.