HARDIN-CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Hardin-Central finished the job, as Hardin-Central and Wellington-Napoleon finished 54-34. MOFO's pick of Wellington-Napoleon missed; the model had projected a 34-34 final.

The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 20.1-point margin error, with score errors of 20.1 for Hardin-Central and 0.0 for Wellington-Napoleon.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON

MOFO leans toward Wellington-Napoleon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Wellington-Napoleon carrying a 50% win probability.

Hardin-Central actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Wellington-Napoleon also allows 1.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -11.0 for Wellington-Napoleon and -10.5 for Hardin-Central. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.