TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warrenton | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.1 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 21.4 | 27.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.7 | -6.2 |
| SOS | -11.7 | +3.1 |
| POWER | +11.6 | -5.1 |
WARRENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrenton finished the job, as Warrenton and Washington finished 16-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-21 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 7.8-point projection. That produced a 5.8-point margin error, with score errors of 12.8 for Warrenton and 7.0 for Washington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARRENTON
MOFO leans toward Warrenton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.8-point margin, with Warrenton carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warrenton enters at 27.1 points per game compared with 23.7 for Washington. Warrenton also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.7 for Warrenton and +3.1 for Washington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Warrenton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Washington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.