TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Buffalo | Warsaw |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.2 | 31.7 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 18.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.4 | +9.7 |
| SOS | -15.7 | -2.1 |
| POWER | +8.9 | +8.9 |
BUFFALO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Buffalo finished the job, as Buffalo and Warsaw finished 54-38. MOFO's pick of Warsaw missed; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 21.7-point margin error, with score errors of 30.5 for Buffalo and 8.8 for Warsaw.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARSAW
MOFO leans toward Warsaw because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with Warsaw carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warsaw enters at 31.7 points per game compared with 29.2 for Buffalo. Warsaw also allows 7.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.1 for Warsaw and -15.7 for Buffalo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Warsaw owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warsaw has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.