TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Excelsior Springs | Warrensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.3 | 29.9 |
| PA / GAME | 36.5 | 22.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -29.3 | +10.7 |
| SOS | +13.2 | -4.5 |
| POWER | -24.6 | +9.1 |
WARRENSBURG WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrensburg finished the job, as Excelsior Springs and Warrensburg finished 14-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-37 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 18.7-point projection. That produced a 1.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.9 for Excelsior Springs and 2.6 for Warrensburg.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARRENSBURG
MOFO leans toward Warrensburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.7-point margin, with Warrensburg carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warrensburg enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 20.3 for Excelsior Springs. Warrensburg also allows 14.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.5 for Warrensburg and +13.2 for Excelsior Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Warrensburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Excelsior Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.