TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pierce City | Tipton with Bunceton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.1 | 37.6 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 22.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.1 | +35.0 |
| SOS | -9.4 | -25.9 |
| POWER | +5.8 | +25.9 |
TIPTON WITH BUNCETON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Tipton with Bunceton finished the job, as Pierce City and Tipton with Bunceton finished 14-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-35 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 10.6-point projection. That produced a 3.4-point margin error, with score errors of 10.3 for Pierce City and 6.8 for Tipton with Bunceton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIPTON WITH BUNCETON
MOFO leans toward Tipton with Bunceton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.6-point margin, with Tipton with Bunceton carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Tipton with Bunceton enters at 37.6 points per game compared with 30.1 for Pierce City. Tipton with Bunceton also allows 5.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -25.9 for Tipton with Bunceton and -9.4 for Pierce City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Tipton with Bunceton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.