TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Francis Howell North | Timberland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 14.5 | 24.2 |
| PA / GAME | 33.3 | 28.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -21.2 | -8.4 |
| SOS | +3.9 | +4.0 |
| POWER | -19.8 | -7.0 |
TIMBERLAND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Timberland finished the job, as Francis Howell North and Timberland finished 0-59. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-30 final.
The actual margin was 59 points versus MOFO's 10.1-point projection. That produced a 48.9-point margin error, with score errors of 20.1 for Francis Howell North and 28.8 for Timberland.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIMBERLAND
MOFO leans toward Timberland because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.1-point margin, with Timberland carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Timberland enters at 24.2 points per game compared with 14.5 for Francis Howell North. Timberland also allows 4.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.0 for Timberland and +3.9 for Francis Howell North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Timberland owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Timberland has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.