TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln | Sweet Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 35.2 |
| PA / GAME | 30.0 | 40.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.8 | -11.2 |
| SOS | +5.1 | +7.8 |
| POWER | -2.0 | -8.4 |
SWEET SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sweet Springs finished the job, as Lincoln and Sweet Springs finished 26-56. MOFO's pick of Lincoln missed; the model had projected a 36-32 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 34.3-point margin error, with score errors of 10.2 for Lincoln and 24.1 for Sweet Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LINCOLN
MOFO leans toward Lincoln because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with Lincoln carrying a 64% win probability.
Sweet Springs actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Lincoln also allows 10.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.1 for Lincoln and +7.8 for Sweet Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sweet Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Sweet Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.