TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Nodaway | Stanberry |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 39.3 | 38.8 |
| PA / GAME | 35.7 | 48.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.9 | -1.1 |
| SOS | -13.8 | -8.2 |
| POWER | +12.1 | -4.0 |
STANBERRY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stanberry finished the job, as South Nodaway and Stanberry finished 14-55. MOFO's pick of South Nodaway missed; the model had projected a 46-36 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 10.1-point projection. That produced a 51.1-point margin error, with score errors of 31.7 for South Nodaway and 19.4 for Stanberry.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH NODAWAY
MOFO leans toward South Nodaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.1-point margin, with South Nodaway carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Nodaway enters at 39.3 points per game compared with 38.8 for Stanberry. South Nodaway also allows 13.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.8 for South Nodaway and -8.2 for Stanberry. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01South Nodaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stanberry has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.