TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fort Osage | Staley |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.0 | 25.5 |
| PA / GAME | 28.0 | 24.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.2 | +9.1 |
| SOS | +4.1 | -7.0 |
| POWER | -0.8 | +6.6 |
STALEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Staley finished the job, as Fort Osage and Staley finished 22-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 4.2-point margin error, with score errors of 4.5 for Fort Osage and 0.4 for Staley.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STALEY
MOFO leans toward Staley because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with Staley carrying a 53% win probability.
Fort Osage actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Staley also allows 3.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.0 for Staley and +4.1 for Fort Osage. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Fort Osage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fort Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.