TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ste. Genevieve | St. Vincent |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 24.6 |
| PA / GAME | 20.1 | 20.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +19.7 | +8.5 |
| SOS | -9.8 | -3.2 |
| POWER | +16.3 | +7.3 |
ST. VINCENT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Vincent finished the job, as Ste. Genevieve and St. Vincent finished 0-34. MOFO's pick of Ste. Genevieve missed; the model had projected a 26-22 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 38.7-point margin error, with score errors of 26.2 for Ste. Genevieve and 12.5 for St. Vincent.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STE. GENEVIEVE
MOFO leans toward Ste. Genevieve because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Ste. Genevieve carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ste. Genevieve enters at 30.3 points per game compared with 24.6 for St. Vincent. Ste. Genevieve also allows 0.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.8 for Ste. Genevieve and -3.2 for St. Vincent. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ste. Genevieve owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Vincent has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.