TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Northwest (Hughesville) | St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 36.3 | 31.5 |
| PA / GAME | 33.2 | 38.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.7 | -17.7 |
| SOS | +8.5 | +15.1 |
| POWER | -5.7 | -12.5 |
NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Hughesville) finished the job, as Northwest (Hughesville) and St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) finished 56-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-32 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 9.7-point margin error, with score errors of 17.9 for Northwest (Hughesville) and 8.2 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE)
MOFO leans toward Northwest (Hughesville) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Northwest (Hughesville) carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Northwest (Hughesville) enters at 36.3 points per game compared with 31.5 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Northwest (Hughesville) also allows 5.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.5 for Northwest (Hughesville) and +15.1 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Northwest (Hughesville) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.