TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Pius X (Kansas City) | St. Michael the Archangel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.3 | 26.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 28.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.8 | -8.9 |
| SOS | -0.5 | +11.5 |
| POWER | +3.6 | -4.9 |
ST. PIUS X (KANSAS CITY) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Kansas City) finished the job, as St. Pius X (Kansas City) and St. Michael the Archangel finished 45-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 45 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 42.2-point margin error, with score errors of 16.9 for St. Pius X (Kansas City) and 25.2 for St. Michael the Archangel.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (KANSAS CITY)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Kansas City) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with St. Pius X (Kansas City) carrying a 59% win probability.
St. Michael the Archangel actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. St. Pius X (Kansas City) also allows 3.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for St. Pius X (Kansas City) and +11.5 for St. Michael the Archangel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Michael the Archangel owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Michael the Archangel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.