TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Festus | St. Mary's South Side |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 31.9 | 24.1 |
| PA / GAME | 27.7 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.9 | -14.2 |
| SOS | +2.8 | +13.2 |
| POWER | +3.8 | -9.6 |
ST. MARY'S SOUTH SIDE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Mary's South Side finished the job, as Festus and St. Mary's South Side finished 12-14. MOFO's pick of Festus missed; the model had projected a 31-25 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 6.5-point projection. That produced a 8.5-point margin error, with score errors of 19.0 for Festus and 10.6 for St. Mary's South Side.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FESTUS
MOFO leans toward Festus because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.5-point margin, with Festus carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Festus enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 24.1 for St. Mary's South Side. St. Mary's South Side's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.8 for Festus and +13.2 for St. Mary's South Side. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Festus owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Mary's South Side has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.