TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Tarkio | St. Joseph Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 28.1 |
| PA / GAME | 33.7 | 40.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.2 | -23.3 |
| SOS | +4.4 | +15.4 |
| POWER | -4.7 | -17.9 |
ST. JOSEPH CHRISTIAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Joseph Christian finished the job, as Tarkio and St. Joseph Christian finished 18-60. MOFO's pick of Tarkio missed; the model had projected a 37-30 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 48.9-point margin error, with score errors of 18.6 for Tarkio and 30.4 for St. Joseph Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TARKIO
MOFO leans toward Tarkio because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Tarkio carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Tarkio enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 28.1 for St. Joseph Christian. Tarkio also allows 7.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.4 for Tarkio and +15.4 for St. Joseph Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Tarkio owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Joseph Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.