TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cuba with Steelville | St. James |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.9 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 26.3 | 21.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.0 | +7.3 |
| SOS | -14.8 | -7.5 |
| POWER | +14.8 | +4.7 |
ST. JAMES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. James finished the job, as Cuba with Steelville and St. James finished 24-30. MOFO's pick of Cuba with Steelville missed; the model had projected a 28-24 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 4.1-point projection. That produced a 10.1-point margin error, with score errors of 4.1 for Cuba with Steelville and 6.0 for St. James.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CUBA WITH STEELVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cuba with Steelville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.1-point margin, with Cuba with Steelville carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cuba with Steelville enters at 32.9 points per game compared with 23.7 for St. James. St. James's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.8 for Cuba with Steelville and -7.5 for St. James. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cuba with Steelville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. James has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.