TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Owensville | St. Francis Borgia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 19.3 | 29.5 |
| PA / GAME | 32.7 | 22.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.0 | +17.8 |
| SOS | +1.0 | -10.9 |
| POWER | -15.6 | +14.0 |
ST. FRANCIS BORGIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Francis Borgia finished the job, as Owensville and St. Francis Borgia finished 0-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-34 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 16.3-point projection. That produced a 32.7-point margin error, with score errors of 17.9 for Owensville and 14.9 for St. Francis Borgia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. FRANCIS BORGIA
MOFO leans toward St. Francis Borgia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 29.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.3-point margin, with St. Francis Borgia carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Francis Borgia enters at 29.5 points per game compared with 19.3 for Owensville. St. Francis Borgia also allows 10.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.9 for St. Francis Borgia and +1.0 for Owensville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Francis Borgia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Owensville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 29.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.