TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Cape Girardeau) | St. Charles West |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 33.8 |
| PA / GAME | 19.3 | 27.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.5 | +18.5 |
| SOS | -5.0 | -15.3 |
| POWER | +9.7 | +13.2 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as Central (Cape Girardeau) and St. Charles West finished 17-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-27 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 1.2-point projection. That produced a 1.8-point margin error, with score errors of 8.5 for Central (Cape Girardeau) and 6.7 for St. Charles West.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.2-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 33.8 points per game compared with 24.4 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Central (Cape Girardeau)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.3 for St. Charles West and -5.0 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Cape Girardeau) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.