TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Westran | South Shelby |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.1 | 20.0 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 25.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.3 | -2.1 |
| SOS | -9.8 | -3.4 |
| POWER | +1.9 | -3.3 |
SOUTH SHELBY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Shelby finished the job, as Westran and South Shelby finished 14-37. MOFO's pick of Westran missed; the model had projected a 26-23 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 26.2-point margin error, with score errors of 11.9 for Westran and 14.4 for South Shelby.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WESTRAN
MOFO leans toward Westran because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with Westran carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Westran enters at 25.1 points per game compared with 20.0 for South Shelby. South Shelby's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.8 for Westran and -3.4 for South Shelby. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Westran owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Shelby has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.