TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rock Bridge | Smith-Cotton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.1 | -7.8 |
| SOS | +3.1 | +3.9 |
| POWER | +1.0 | -6.5 |
ROCK BRIDGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rock Bridge finished the job, as Rock Bridge and Smith-Cotton finished 31-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-22 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 6.2-point projection. That produced a 3.8-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Rock Bridge and 1.0 for Smith-Cotton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCK BRIDGE
MOFO leans toward Rock Bridge because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.2-point margin, with Rock Bridge carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rock Bridge enters at 27.2 points per game compared with 23.0 for Smith-Cotton. Rock Bridge also allows 5.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for Rock Bridge and +3.9 for Smith-Cotton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Rock Bridge owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smith-Cotton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.