TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kelly | Scott City with Chaffee |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 21.1 | 25.5 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 29.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.7 | -20.1 |
| SOS | +2.0 | +13.6 |
| POWER | -8.0 | -15.4 |
KELLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kelly finished the job, as Kelly and Scott City with Chaffee finished 37-15. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-25 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 21.2-point margin error, with score errors of 11.0 for Kelly and 10.2 for Scott City with Chaffee.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KELLY
MOFO leans toward Kelly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with Kelly carrying a 53% win probability.
Scott City with Chaffee actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Kelly also allows 3.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.0 for Kelly and +13.6 for Scott City with Chaffee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Scott City with Chaffee owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Scott City with Chaffee has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.