TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Smithville | Savannah |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.8 | 33.3 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 15.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.9 | +28.4 |
| SOS | -11.6 | -14.5 |
| POWER | +14.8 | +23.4 |
SAVANNAH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Savannah finished the job, as Smithville and Savannah finished 14-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-28 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 5.1-point projection. That produced a 22.9-point margin error, with score errors of 8.6 for Smithville and 14.4 for Savannah.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SAVANNAH
MOFO leans toward Savannah because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.1-point margin, with Savannah carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Savannah enters at 33.3 points per game compared with 31.8 for Smithville. Savannah also allows 5.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.5 for Savannah and -11.6 for Smithville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Savannah owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smithville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.