TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Northland Christian | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.3 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 32.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.9 | +10.6 |
| SOS | -1.8 | -14.5 |
| POWER | -9.6 | +5.6 |
SANTA FE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Santa Fe finished the job, as Northland Christian and Santa Fe finished 28-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-33 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 5.8-point projection. That produced a 18.2-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Northland Christian and 18.6 for Santa Fe.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SANTA FE
MOFO leans toward Santa Fe because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.8-point margin, with Santa Fe carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Santa Fe enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 25.3 for Northland Christian. Northland Christian's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.5 for Santa Fe and -1.8 for Northland Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Santa Fe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Northland Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.