TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Van-Far | Russellville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 31.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.1 | 21.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.9 | +23.0 |
| SOS | +6.4 | -15.0 |
| POWER | -5.7 | +17.7 |
RUSSELLVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Russellville finished the job, as Van-Far and Russellville finished 6-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-31 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 31.2-point margin error, with score errors of 15.7 for Van-Far and 15.5 for Russellville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RUSSELLVILLE
MOFO leans toward Russellville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with Russellville carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Russellville enters at 31.4 points per game compared with 26.0 for Van-Far. Russellville also allows 5.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.0 for Russellville and +6.4 for Van-Far. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Russellville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Van-Far has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.