TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Winnetonka | Ruskin |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.1 | 18.6 |
| PA / GAME | 30.4 | 38.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -21.5 | -31.5 |
| SOS | +12.8 | +14.8 |
| POWER | -17.0 | -26.3 |
WINNETONKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Winnetonka finished the job, as Winnetonka and Ruskin finished 48-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-24 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 8.4-point projection. That produced a 7.6-point margin error, with score errors of 16.1 for Winnetonka and 8.5 for Ruskin.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINNETONKA
MOFO leans toward Winnetonka because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.4-point margin, with Winnetonka carrying a 75% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Winnetonka enters at 23.1 points per game compared with 18.6 for Ruskin. Winnetonka also allows 8.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +12.8 for Winnetonka and +14.8 for Ruskin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Winnetonka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ruskin has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.