TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Branson | Rolla |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.6 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 30.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.7 | -17.5 |
| SOS | +3.7 | +12.5 |
| POWER | -1.4 | -13.1 |
BRANSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Branson finished the job, as Branson and Rolla finished 49-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-24 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 5.5-point projection. That produced a 23.5-point margin error, with score errors of 19.6 for Branson and 3.9 for Rolla.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BRANSON
MOFO leans toward Branson because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.5-point margin, with Branson carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Branson enters at 26.6 points per game compared with 25.0 for Rolla. Branson also allows 5.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.7 for Branson and +12.5 for Rolla. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Branson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rolla has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.