TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Valle Catholic | Rockwood Summit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.7 | 28.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.8 | 24.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.0 | +6.9 |
| SOS | -12.5 | -2.9 |
| POWER | +23.6 | +5.9 |
VALLE CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Valle Catholic finished the job, as Valle Catholic and Rockwood Summit finished 42-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-23 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 9.6-point projection. That produced a 25.4-point margin error, with score errors of 9.8 for Valle Catholic and 15.6 for Rockwood Summit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VALLE CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Valle Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.6-point margin, with Valle Catholic carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Valle Catholic enters at 36.7 points per game compared with 28.9 for Rockwood Summit. Valle Catholic also allows 4.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.5 for Valle Catholic and -2.9 for Rockwood Summit. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Valle Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rockwood Summit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.