RIVERVIEW GARDENS WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Riverview Gardens finished the job, as Normandy Collaborative and Riverview Gardens finished 12-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-27 final.

The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 0.5-point projection. That produced a 7.5-point margin error, with score errors of 14.5 for Normandy Collaborative and 7.0 for Riverview Gardens.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RIVERVIEW GARDENS

MOFO leans toward Riverview Gardens because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.5-point margin, with Riverview Gardens carrying a 52% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Riverview Gardens enters at 27.5 points per game compared with 23.4 for Normandy Collaborative. Normandy Collaborative's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.

Strength of schedule checks in at -13.9 for Riverview Gardens and -15.3 for Normandy Collaborative. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.