TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | MICDS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.4 | 29.4 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 21.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.7 | +14.2 |
| SOS | +6.0 | -9.4 |
| POWER | -2.7 | +10.9 |
MICDS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
MICDS finished the job, as MICDS and Richmond finished 62-38. MOFO's pick of Richmond missed; the model had projected a 23-29 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 6.4-point projection. That produced a 30.4-point margin error, with score errors of 39.4 for MICDS and 9.1 for Richmond.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RICHMOND
MOFO leans toward Richmond because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.4-point margin, with Richmond carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Richmond enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 26.4 for MICDS. Richmond also allows 4.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.4 for Richmond and +6.0 for MICDS. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Richmond owns the stronger scoring profile.
02MICDS has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.