TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kickapoo | Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 33.9 |
| PA / GAME | 27.8 | 19.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.6 | +26.5 |
| SOS | +2.1 | -15.8 |
| POWER | -6.9 | +21.0 |
REPUBLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Republic finished the job, as Kickapoo and Republic finished 10-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-34 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 16.4-point projection. That produced a 27.6-point margin error, with score errors of 7.2 for Kickapoo and 20.4 for Republic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD REPUBLIC
MOFO leans toward Republic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.4-point margin, with Republic carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Republic enters at 33.9 points per game compared with 20.5 for Kickapoo. Republic also allows 8.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.8 for Republic and +2.1 for Kickapoo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Republic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kickapoo has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.