TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marshfield | Reeds Spring |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.7 | 19.6 |
| PA / GAME | 27.7 | 26.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.2 | -7.1 |
| SOS | +0.4 | -0.5 |
| POWER | -7.1 | -7.3 |
MARSHFIELD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marshfield finished the job, as Marshfield and Reeds Spring finished 50-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-24 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 43.0-point margin error, with score errors of 25.4 for Marshfield and 17.6 for Reeds Spring.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARSHFIELD
MOFO leans toward Marshfield because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Marshfield carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Marshfield enters at 22.7 points per game compared with 19.6 for Reeds Spring. Reeds Spring's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.4 for Marshfield and -0.5 for Reeds Spring. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marshfield owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marshfield has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.