TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln College Prep | Raytown South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 21.8 | 18.6 |
| PA / GAME | 20.5 | 30.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.5 | -8.3 |
| SOS | -1.9 | +2.0 |
| POWER | +1.8 | -7.6 |
RAYTOWN SOUTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Raytown South finished the job, as Lincoln College Prep and Raytown South finished 7-26. MOFO's pick of Lincoln College Prep missed; the model had projected a 27-19 final.
The actual margin was 19 points versus MOFO's 8.5-point projection. That produced a 27.5-point margin error, with score errors of 20.0 for Lincoln College Prep and 7.4 for Raytown South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LINCOLN COLLEGE PREP
MOFO leans toward Lincoln College Prep because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.5-point margin, with Lincoln College Prep carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lincoln College Prep enters at 21.8 points per game compared with 18.6 for Raytown South. Lincoln College Prep also allows 9.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.9 for Lincoln College Prep and +2.0 for Raytown South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lincoln College Prep owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Raytown South has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.