TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Saxony Lutheran | Portageville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 31.7 |
| PA / GAME | 25.2 | 19.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +7.8 | +22.3 |
| SOS | -7.2 | -18.4 |
| POWER | +5.3 | +15.8 |
PORTAGEVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Portageville finished the job, as Saxony Lutheran and Portageville finished 40-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-29 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 7.4-point margin error, with score errors of 17.2 for Saxony Lutheran and 24.6 for Portageville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PORTAGEVILLE
MOFO leans toward Portageville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with Portageville carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Portageville enters at 31.7 points per game compared with 28.2 for Saxony Lutheran. Portageville also allows 5.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.4 for Portageville and -7.2 for Saxony Lutheran. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Portageville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Saxony Lutheran has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.