TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hazelwood West | Pattonville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 18.9 | 29.1 |
| PA / GAME | 27.9 | 25.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.9 | +10.4 |
| SOS | -6.0 | -6.1 |
| POWER | -7.0 | +8.2 |
PATTONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pattonville finished the job, as Hazelwood West and Pattonville finished 0-43. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 9.7-point projection. That produced a 33.3-point margin error, with score errors of 20.5 for Hazelwood West and 12.8 for Pattonville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PATTONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Pattonville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.7-point margin, with Pattonville carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pattonville enters at 29.1 points per game compared with 18.9 for Hazelwood West. Pattonville also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.1 for Pattonville and -6.0 for Hazelwood West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Pattonville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hazelwood West has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.