TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mound City | Pattonsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.5 | 41.3 |
| PA / GAME | 28.5 | 41.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.3 | -13.2 |
| SOS | +11.9 | +11.8 |
| POWER | -10.1 | -9.1 |
MOUND CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mound City finished the job, as Mound City and Pattonsburg finished 80-28. MOFO's pick of Pattonsburg missed; the model had projected a 34-35 final.
The actual margin was 52 points versus MOFO's 1.1-point projection. That produced a 53.1-point margin error, with score errors of 46.1 for Mound City and 7.0 for Pattonsburg.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PATTONSBURG
MOFO leans toward Pattonsburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.1-point margin, with Pattonsburg carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pattonsburg enters at 41.3 points per game compared with 26.5 for Mound City. Mound City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.8 for Pattonsburg and +11.9 for Mound City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Pattonsburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mound City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.