TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Keytesville | Osceola |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 16.9 | 28.1 |
| PA / GAME | 40.9 | 42.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -30.8 | -24.5 |
| SOS | +13.5 | +13.9 |
| POWER | -26.1 | -19.6 |
OSCEOLA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Osceola finished the job, as Keytesville and Osceola finished 30-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-35 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 6.2-point projection. That produced a 3.8-point margin error, with score errors of 1.0 for Keytesville and 4.8 for Osceola.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OSCEOLA
MOFO leans toward Osceola because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.2-point margin, with Osceola carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Osceola enters at 28.1 points per game compared with 16.9 for Keytesville. Keytesville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.9 for Osceola and +13.5 for Keytesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Osceola owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Osceola has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.