TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Polo | Orrick |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 27.4 |
| PA / GAME | 33.9 | 31.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.6 | -2.8 |
| SOS | +1.9 | -2.3 |
| POWER | -7.0 | -3.6 |
POLO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Polo finished the job, as Polo and Orrick finished 40-38. MOFO's pick of Orrick missed; the model had projected a 30-31 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 2.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.6 for Polo and 7.0 for Orrick.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ORRICK
MOFO leans toward Orrick because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Orrick carrying a 52% win probability.
Polo actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Orrick also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.3 for Orrick and +1.9 for Polo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Polo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Polo has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.